Fresh from the Factory: Evidence Suggests Russia Shifts to Just-in-Time Missile Production
Debris analysis from Kyiv strikes indicates newly manufactured S-400 missiles are being fired within weeks of production, challenging assessments of Russian stockpile depletion.
Debris analysis from recent strikes on Kyiv suggests Russia has shifted to "just-in-time" production of advanced missiles, with freshly manufactured S-400 systems being fired almost immediately after leaving the factory floor, according to military analysts tracking the conflict.
The finding challenges earlier assessments that Russian stockpiles were nearing depletion, and has significant implications for European defence planning and the urgency of continued air defence support for Ukraine.
Production Over Stockpiles
Military observers have noted manufacturing dates on recovered missile components that indicate production within weeks of deployment. This suggests Russia has successfully pivoted its industrial base to sustained wartime output rather than drawing down reserves.
The shift comes as Vladimir Putin announced Russia would contribute $1 billion to President Trump's proposed "Board of Peace" initiative. Hours after the announcement, Russian forces launched another wave of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
"Putin is not holding back," noted one viral account sharing the Russian president's statements. His speeches continue to blame Western elites for global tensions while denying Russian responsibility.
European Action
France demonstrated continued European resolve when President Emmanuel Macron announced the French Navy had boarded a Russian oil tanker suspected of flying a false flag in the Mediterranean.
"We will not tolerate any violation," Macron wrote. "The operation was conducted on the high seas." The seizure of a vessel from Russia's "shadow fleet" marks an escalation in European enforcement of sanctions.
The EU has committed to a 90 billion euro aid package for Ukraine covering 2026 and 2027, though the announcement drew criticism from some quarters. Christine Anderson, a German MEP, questioned European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's authority to make such commitments at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Strategic Implications
Finland's President Alexander Stubb offered a blunt assessment of Russia's position at Davos. "What has Russia achieved in the past four years? Taken 20% of Ukraine. One million casualties and dead. Decreased its sphere of influence. Russian economy: 30% inflation, 16% interest rates, 0% growth, no more reserves," he said.
The production data complicates peace negotiations. A Russia capable of sustained missile production may feel less pressure to compromise than one running low on precision munitions.
For the EU, the findings underscore the need for continued defence industrial cooperation and air defence assistance to Ukraine. The war is entering a new phase where industrial capacity may matter as much as battlefield tactics.
Russian state television, meanwhile, has been mocking European defence posture, noting that countries that supplied weapons to Ukraine now face the prospect of purchasing American arms to defend Greenland from American threats.
The irony was not lost on European observers seeking to build genuine strategic autonomy.
January 25, 2026