Threats and Theatre: Decoding the IRGC's Propaganda Campaign Against US Naval Power

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has intensified its propaganda campaign as tensions with the United States escalate, releasing what it claims is surveillance drone footage of the USS Abraham Lincoln and issuing explicit threats to sink American vessels. The messaging strategy reveals a regime under domestic pressure attempting to project strength abroad.

Social media accounts linked to the IRGC have circulated dramatic footage accompanied by unambiguous threats. "We will sink it, and that's a promise to you," declared one widely-shared post featuring what appeared to be targeting graphics superimposed over an American carrier. Another proclaimed that Iran vows to "sink and humble" US forces with a hypersonic strike.

The footage quickly spread across platforms, generating thousands of reactions. Fact-checkers at Misbar have noted that some of the circulating imagery appears outdated. According to Naval Post, the US Navy previously identified similar IRGC propaganda videos as being at least seven years old, based on aircraft visible on carrier decks that were retired in 2015.

A Pattern of Recycled Footage

This is not the first time Tehran has employed such tactics. In 2019, France 24's fact-checkers found that images allegedly captured by IRGC drones were computer-generated, with aircraft missing key identifying features like registration numbers.

The IRGC has previously revealed underground drone bases housing hundreds of domestically produced unmanned aircraft. State media claimed the Mohajer-6 drone monitored the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower for ten consecutive hours undetected. Whether such claims are accurate or embellished, the propaganda value is clear: Tehran wants both domestic and international audiences to believe American naval supremacy can be challenged.

The messaging intensified as the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrived in the Middle East, prompting a flurry of IRGC-aligned accounts to post surveillance footage and strike capabilities.

Domestic Control, International Signaling

According to the Middle East Forum, Iran's psychological warfare apparatus serves dual purposes. The IRGC's Cyber Command operates a dedicated soft war headquarters for planning and executing psychological operations targeting both domestic opposition and foreign governments.

The propaganda campaign comes as Iran faces unprecedented internal dissent. The regime has labeled protesters as "terrorists" and connected demonstrations to the United States and Israel, according to the Critical Threats Project. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared on January 11 that Iran is at war on four fronts: cognitive, economic, military, and terrorism.

International reaction on social media has been divided. Some responses dismissed the threats outright. "No. You are not ready," replied one account with over 300,000 followers. Others expressed support for US military action, with some Iranian diaspora voices arguing that "90 million Iranians are with USA, waiting for strikes to begin."

What Does the Messaging Reveal?

Analysts suggest the escalation in external threats often correlates with internal instability. When Iran attacked US bases at Al-Asad Airbase in 2020, Supreme Leader Khamenei claimed it "damaged America's prestige and struck at the superpower image of America." The strategic objective appears consistent: undermining US authority through both military posturing and reputational attacks.

The IRGC Intelligence Organization released a statement on January 10 acknowledging it is "dealing with possible acts of abandonment," suggesting concerns about defections within security forces. The regime may be projecting external strength precisely because internal control is under strain.

European Implications

For European observers, the propaganda campaign presents a communications challenge. The European Parliament voted 562-9 to condemn Iran's repression and called for designating the entire IRGC, including the Basij militia and Quds Force, as terrorist organisations.

The EU has charted a distinct path from Washington's military posturing, focusing on targeted sanctions and diplomatic engagement. High Representative Kaja Kallas denounced Tehran's response to protesters as "disproportionate," while the bloc has proposed asset freezes and visa bans against senior Iranian officials.

European capitals must navigate between two extremes: American military escalation that risks broader conflict, and Iranian propaganda designed to project invincibility that Tehran clearly does not possess. The recycled drone footage and theatrical threats suggest a regime more concerned with perception than genuine military confrontation.

Looking Ahead

The gap between IRGC propaganda and verified capabilities remains significant. Whether Tehran can actually threaten a US carrier strike group is a question military analysts debate. What is clear is that the Revolutionary Guard's communications strategy has shifted from implicit threats to explicit promises of destruction.

For Europeans, the propaganda campaign serves as a reminder that information warfare accompanies any potential military escalation in the Gulf. As protests continue inside Iran and American forces position nearby, the IRGC's messaging machine will likely intensify, regardless of the footage's authenticity.