500 Aircraft, Three Carrier Groups: What the Largest US Military Buildup Near Iran Means for European Energy Security
The unprecedented US military deployment positions Europe at the crossroads of a potential conflict that could devastate 10% of its LNG imports. As Washington builds an armada, Brussels must confront its vulnerability to Middle East instability.
The United States has deployed nearly 500 aircraft and three carrier strike groups to the Middle East in what military analysts describe as one of the largest coordinated US-Israeli-British deployments outside of wartime. The buildup positions European energy security at a critical juncture, with 10% of the EU's liquefied natural gas imports at risk should conflict disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
The Armada Arrives
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group reached striking distance of Iran on 26 January, according to the Washington Post. It joins the USS George H.W. Bush and a third carrier group already in the region.
The deployment includes more than a dozen F-15E strike aircraft and Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems. Military trackers say the force represents a full-spectrum war posture, with analysts citing a potential 36-hour window for action.
Iran's government has warned against what it calls "adventurism" by Washington. State media reported that Tehran views the buildup as an attempt to pressure the regime amid ongoing domestic unrest that has seen thousands killed in protests.
Airlines Flee the Region
The scale of the deployment has triggered immediate civilian consequences. Major European carriers including Air France, British Airways, Lufthansa, and KLM have suspended flights to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
The flight cancellations, citing the "security situation" in the Middle East, mark one of the broadest aviation disruptions in the region since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. For European travellers and businesses, the suspensions signal how quickly US military posturing can ripple through daily life on the continent.
This comes as the third carrier strike group moves into position, tightening what military observers describe as a cordon around Iranian territory.
The USS George H.W. Bush deployment has prompted speculation about possible strikes on Revolutionary Guards capabilities. Iranian officials have accused the US and Israel of coordinating to destabilise the regime.
Europe's Energy Vulnerability Exposed
The buildup has renewed focus on Europe's continued dependence on Middle Eastern energy supplies. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a disruption to the Strait of Hormuz would jeopardise 10% of Europe's LNG imports, primarily from Qatar.
Italy, Belgium, and Poland face the greatest exposure. Goldman Sachs has warned that an extreme scenario involving prolonged Strait closure could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, with gas and electricity prices in Europe surging as gas-fired power sets marginal pricing.
The European Council on Foreign Relations argues that European policymakers must maintain active diplomacy with Iran while pursuing a more ambitious strategy in the Gulf. The crisis underscores the need for unified EU foreign policy and energy security coordination.
The Case for European Strategic Autonomy
While European gas demand has declined 20% between 2021 and 2024, and LNG imports fell 19% year-on-year in 2024, the continent remains vulnerable to decisions made in Washington rather than Brussels. Alternative routes exist through Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline and the UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, but Europe has no direct control over these chokepoints.
This situation echoes broader patterns in transatlantic relations. As we reported, Ukraine exposed the West's greatest weakness in defence production, prompting the EU to accelerate its own capabilities. Similarly, Iranian protesters have appealed for help while Europe's foreign policy response has remained muted.
The current crisis demonstrates why European strategic autonomy is not optional. With Washington pursuing its own objectives in the Middle East, Brussels must accelerate energy diversification, deepen diplomatic channels with all parties, and strengthen the case for a unified EU foreign policy that can protect European interests regardless of US actions.
A federated Europe, speaking with one voice on foreign policy and energy security, would not find itself hostage to the military calculations of any single ally. The armada gathering near Iran serves as a reminder that European integration is not merely an economic project. It is the foundation of genuine sovereignty in a multipolar world.
January 28, 2026