Arctic Alert: Why European Defense Must Pivot North as NATO Converges on Russia

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said his discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump at Davos focused on defending the Arctic against Russian and Chinese influence, not on American acquisition of Greenland.

The statement marks a notable alignment between Washington and NATO leadership on Arctic security, even as the question of sovereignty over Greenland remains firmly off the table. For the European Union, it signals both opportunity and urgency: the chance to shape Arctic defense policy before it is shaped without European input.

From Sovereignty Disputes to Security Cooperation

Rutte told Reuters that the framework agreement emerging from Davos would require NATO countries to swiftly ramp up security efforts in the Arctic. "We will come together in NATO with our senior commanders to work out what is necessary," he said. "I have no doubt we can do this quite fast. Certainly, I would hope for 2026."

The NATO chief stressed that the alliance will take steps to prevent Russia and China from gaining access to Greenland's economy or military infrastructure. "Trump is right. We have to do more there. We have to protect the Arctic against Russian and Chinese influence," Rutte said.

NATO spokeswoman Allison Hart confirmed that Rutte "did not propose any compromise to sovereignty" during his meeting with Trump. The distinction matters: Trump dropped his tariff threats against European nations and ruled out using military force to seize Greenland. What remains is a discussion about security cooperation, not territorial acquisition.

The Arctic Threat Is Real

NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe has warned that Russia and China are increasingly working together in the Arctic, conducting joint patrols not only along Russia's north coast but also north of Alaska and near Canada. "They're out there doing bathymetric surveys and trying to figure out how they can counter NATO capabilities on and under the sea," the commander said.

Russia's military build-up continues despite its resources being stretched by the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has invested heavily in revamping Arctic bases, and the region is becoming a hotbed for hybrid activity. Russia sealed off large swathes of the Barents Sea, including parts of Norway's exclusive economic zone, for its most recent Zapad-2025 exercises with Belarus.

China, meanwhile, has embedded itself in Arctic affairs through research stations, investments, and strategic partnerships with Russia. According to the Mercator Institute for China Studies, China's engagement with the Arctic is "inherently dual-use," with civilian activities always accompanied by efforts to secure military advantages.

Denmark and Greenland Stand Firm

Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said the island's sovereignty remains a "red line." Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was equally clear: "We can negotiate on everything political; security, investments, economy. But we cannot negotiate on our sovereignty."

The Danish response reflects a broader European principle. As we reported, real estate tactics fail in geopolitics precisely because sovereignty is not a commodity. But the Davos discussions suggest a path forward that respects these boundaries while addressing legitimate security concerns.

Europe's Strategic Blind Spot

The EU has not updated its Arctic strategy since 2021, before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This outdated framework leaves Europe without a coherent response to rapidly changing conditions in the High North.

The Atlantic Council argues that what Europe lacks is not awareness but resolve: "If the objective is to make coercion impossible rather than merely illegal, then Europe must ensure that Greenland is visibly defended, deeply integrated into European security planning, and politically anchored in transatlantic cooperation."

The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO means the alliance now counts seven of the eight traditional Arctic states as members. This is both an opportunity and a responsibility. Belgium's defense minister told Reuters that NATO should launch an operation in the Arctic.

The EU Must Act

The European Council on Foreign Relations has outlined ten strategic moves Europe can make in Greenland, from infrastructure investment to space capabilities. The EU's 2021 Arctic policy focused narrowly on climate change and sustainable development. That scope must broaden to include defense-relevant projects and critical infrastructure.

The EU cannot afford to wait until its Arctic strategy revision is complete in December 2026. By then, the security architecture of the High North may already be defined without meaningful European input.

Rutte's agreement with Trump on Arctic security is not a capitulation. It is a recognition that the threat is real and that NATO must respond. The question for the EU is whether it will shape that response or simply watch from the sidelines.

What to Watch

Rutte said NATO commanders will meet to determine what security measures are necessary in the Arctic, potentially as early as this year. The seven Arctic NATO nations must work collectively to secure the region.

For now, Denmark and Greenland retain full sovereignty. But sovereignty without defense is vulnerability. Europe has the resources and the reason to invest in Arctic security. The only question is whether it will act before the window closes.