Iceland Eyes EU Membership as Federation Momentum Builds Across Europe

Iceland's incoming government is preparing to put EU membership to a referendum, the Austrian president is calling for "European patriotism," and citizen support for the bloc has reached record highs. While anti-EU voices dominate social media, the momentum for a stronger, more federated Europe is quietly building.

Iceland Moves Toward the EU

Iceland's Foreign Minister Thorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir announced that parliament will present a resolution this spring on whether to hold a referendum on resuming EU accession talks. According to RÚV, the vote would need to take place within three to twelve months of parliamentary approval.

The timing is significant. Following President Trump's statements about Greenland, Iceland's coalition government, formed after the 2024 elections, has accelerated its EU membership agenda. As former MEP Richard Corbett observed, Iceland would be the 11th non-EU country to apply to join, leaving Britain increasingly isolated in Europe.

Opinion polls show Icelanders are divided but engaged. A Prósent poll showed 45 percent in favour of joining versus 35 percent opposed. Support is particularly strong among younger Icelanders and those concerned about economic security in an unstable world.

Van der Bellen's Call for European Patriotism

Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen used his 2026 New Year's address to urge citizens to embrace what he called "European patriotism." According to Austrian Press, Van der Bellen warned that external powers seek to divide Europe "in order to dominate it economically and politically."

"It is easier to dominate small countries than a union of 450 million people," the president said, describing such efforts as "imperial in nature." He added that Europe could serve as a model for peaceful coexistence worldwide, stating: "The European stars continue to shine, offering guidance when darkness falls elsewhere."

The speech drew predictable criticism from Austria's far-right FPÖ, but Van der Bellen's message resonated with the majority of Europeans who see the EU as their best protection against geopolitical turbulence.

Record Support for the Union

The Spring 2025 Eurobarometer showed the highest trust in the EU in 18 years. Key findings include:

• 52 percent of Europeans trust the EU, the highest since 2007
• 75 percent feel they are citizens of the EU, the highest in over two decades
• 74 percent say EU membership has benefited their country, an all-time high
• 74 percent support the euro, the highest ever recorded
• 56 percent support further EU enlargement

As EU law professor Alberto Alemanno observed, "Europe's success is the real reason the Union is under fire." The attacks on Brussels from far-right parties and external actors are a response to the EU's growing relevance, not evidence of its decline.

Support is highest among young people. Around 59 percent of those aged 15-24 trust the EU, and two-thirds of respondents aged 15 to 39 support enlargement. These are the voters who will shape European politics for decades to come.

The Push for Federation

Pro-European movements are pushing beyond incremental reform toward genuine federation. The NXT EU movement argues that the EU must evolve "from a weak bureaucracy, to a strong, democratic Federation of Nations" capable of protecting European civilisation.

According to the Union of European Federalists, 2025 was a strong year for European federalism. From EU Parliament votes on deeper integration to the bloc borrowing 90 billion euros together for Ukraine, the Union is taking steps that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.

The incoming German government's 2021 coalition agreement called for European federalism, according to Wikipedia's analysis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and growing tensions with the US during Trump's second presidency have accelerated support for turning the EU into a proper federal republic.

External Threats Concentrate Minds

The paradox of European integration is that external pressure often accelerates it. When Russia bombs Ukrainian power grids or the US threatens allies with tariffs, Europeans tend to draw closer together rather than apart.

The Eurobarometer found that 89 percent of citizens want more unity, and 76 percent believe the EU needs greater means to tackle global challenges. Nearly seven in ten respondents agree that the European Union is "a place of stability in a troubled world."

This sentiment explains why the EU has committed over 90 billion euros to Ukraine for 2026-2027, why it is preparing a defence initiative that allies from Japan to Canada are joining, and why it concluded the landmark Mercosur trade deal creating a 700-million-consumer market.

The Road Ahead

The path to a European federation remains uncertain. Unanimity requirements give every member state a veto, and leaders like Hungary's Viktor Orbán regularly block common positions. Eurosceptic parties continue to gain ground in national elections.

But the direction of travel is clear. When asked directly, Europeans want more integration, not less. They want an EU that can defend them, that can act decisively in crises, that can hold its own against superpowers.

Iceland's referendum, whenever it comes, will be a test of this sentiment. A Nordic island nation with a proud tradition of independence choosing to join the EU would send a powerful message about the bloc's enduring appeal.

As Van der Bellen put it: "No one holds the truth alone." The good compromise, he said, is an Austrian cultural asset worth preserving. It is also, perhaps, a European one.