US Carrier Arrives in Striking Range of Iran as IRGC Releases Threat Footage

The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its strike group have arrived within striking range of Iran, according to multiple reports, as Tehran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released drone footage appearing to show surveillance of the American vessel and issued explicit strike threats.

President Trump said on Thursday that a US "armada" is heading towards the Gulf region. "We're watching Iran. We have a big force going towards Iran," Trump said. "We have a lot of ships going that direction. Just in case, we have a big flotilla going in that direction."

The carrier strike group, which includes three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles, was redirected from the South China Sea more than a week ago. The vessels are also equipped with the Aegis combat system, providing air and missile defence capabilities.

IRGC Releases Surveillance Footage

The IRGC released what it claimed was close-range drone footage of the USS Abraham Lincoln near the Persian Gulf, accompanied by statements that Iranian forces are "fully capable to strike US Naval powers in Middle East." The footage sparked widespread discussion on social media, with some accounts framing it as evidence of Iran's surveillance capabilities.

Fact-checkers at Misbar have noted that some of the circulating footage appears to be outdated. Regardless of the video's provenance, the propaganda message from Tehran is clear: American naval assets are being monitored.

The Lincoln has reportedly activated "ghost mode," turning off its transponders to complicate Iranian targeting. According to WION News, this significantly increases the resources the IRGC must dedicate to tracking the carrier.

European Energy Vulnerability

The standoff carries immediate implications for European energy security. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would jeopardise 10% of Europe's LNG imports, with Italy, Belgium and Poland most at risk.

Roughly 27% of the world's crude oil and 22% of global liquefied natural gas trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. During the 12-day Israel-Iran war last June, Iran's parliament voted to close the strait in retaliation for US support of strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities.

European carriers have already begun responding to the uncertainty. Air France cancelled flights from Paris to Dubai over the weekend, while Dutch carriers KLM and Transavia also suspended services. Luxair postponed its Luxembourg-Dubai flight citing "ongoing tensions and insecurity affecting the region's airspace."

EU Diplomatic Response

The European Union has charted a distinct path from Washington's military posturing, prioritising sanctions and diplomatic pressure over force projection.

High Representative Kaja Kallas denounced Tehran for its "disproportionate" and "heavy-handed" response to protesters, with the EU announcing readiness to impose harsher sanctions. The bloc has proposed asset freezes and visa bans against Iran's interior minister and 14 other senior officials.

The European Parliament voted 562-9 with 57 abstentions to condemn Iran's repression, calling on the Council to designate the entire IRGC, including the Basij militia and Quds Force, as terrorist organisations.

This comes as the EU has already expanded sanctions in response to reports of over 36,000 deaths in Iran's crackdown on protesters. The European approach contrasts with Washington's military deployment, focusing instead on targeted economic measures and support for Iranian civil society.

Strategic Implications for Europe

European officials have stressed that diplomacy remains essential despite the military build-up. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, maintaining communication channels is viewed not as a concession but as a safeguard against miscalculation in an already volatile environment.

The European Commission has noted that "regime change has not been part of our EU consolidated policy" toward Iran, while affirming support for the Iranian people's "legitimate aspiration for a better life."

Any direct US military action faces significant risks of broad Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil infrastructure, potentially triggering oil price spikes that analysts warn could exceed $100 per barrel. European gas demand declined by 20% between 2021 and 2024, reducing but not eliminating the continent's exposure to Gulf energy disruptions.

Looking Ahead

The coming days will prove critical. According to Iran International, the carrier strike group is expected to reach the Gulf of Oman within a week. EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels on January 29 to potentially adopt new sanctions measures.

For Europe, the standoff underscores a familiar tension: reliance on American security guarantees in a region where US actions can directly threaten European economic interests. The EU's distinct diplomatic approach, combining targeted sanctions with continued engagement, represents an attempt to influence the situation without being drawn into a military confrontation that could prove far more costly for European citizens than for Americans.