Xi's Inner Circle Under Scrutiny: What China's Military Purge Means for European Relations

The largest military purge in China since 1949 has left the People's Liberation Army leaderless at its highest levels, prompting European analysts to reassess the bloc's strategic relationship with Beijing as Xi Jinping consolidates unprecedented personal control over the world's largest armed forces.

This comes as Europe faces a pivotal moment in its China policy. Bilateral trade reached 642 billion euros in 2025, yet the EU remains dangerously exposed to Chinese supply chains for critical materials. The turmoil in Beijing's military command offers both a window of reduced regional tension and a stark reminder of the risks of depending on an opaque, one-man regime.

From Purge to Policy: What Changed

The investigation into Zhang Youxia, China's most senior general and Xi Jinping's childhood friend, marks what former CIA analyst Christopher Johnson called "the total annihilation of the high command." Zhang is accused of leaking nuclear weapons data to Washington and accepting bribes for military promotions.

The Central Military Commission, normally a seven-member body, now has just two functioning officials: Xi himself and the disciplinary chief. Among the nine generals dismissed in October, seven had previously served in the Eastern Theatre Command responsible for Taiwan planning.

"We can all sleep soundly for years," Lyle Morris of the Asia Society Policy Institute told Bloomberg. "There is no way they could pull off the Taiwan contingency with no senior leaders in charge."

For a detailed account of the unverified coup claims circulating alongside the verified purge, see our earlier coverage.

The European Calculation

The timing of China's internal upheaval coincides with a broader European pivot toward strategic autonomy. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in India last week for what officials describe as "the mother of all trade deals," a partnership covering two billion people.

French President Emmanuel Macron has stated that "China is welcome" in Europe, signalling that Brussels intends to maintain economic ties even as it reduces vulnerabilities. Yet the EU's 306 billion euro trade deficit with China in 2024 underscores the scale of the challenge.

According to Merics, European countries have on average one hundred times more leverage on China through unified EU action than when acting individually. China depended on imports of just 33 types of goods from the 27 individual member states in 2022, compared with 120 products when shipments are aggregated as a single bloc.

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

The debate over European strategic autonomy has intensified in recent weeks. China's willingness to weaponize trade dependencies has been demonstrated repeatedly, most recently through export controls on rare earth elements that sent German industry into a panic earlier this year.

The German government launched a one billion euro critical raw materials fund in response, yet not a single project has been approved despite roughly 40 applications. Chancellor Merz is expected to visit Beijing in late February and present an action plan for reducing German dependencies on Chinese critical raw materials.

Exposure to Chinese inputs is particularly strong for EU industries in basic metals, chemicals, electronics and electrical equipment, according to European Commission analysis.

Taiwan and Regional Stability

The purge has significant implications for Taiwan. Wen-Ti Sung of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub told the Taipei Times: "Removal of the PLA's Taiwan specialists probably dialled China's doomsday clock on Taiwan invasion plans... No rational actor would attempt to launch complex missions like a Taiwan invasion with close to half of the top-level chain of command falling off the chain."

Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that 83 percent of China experts reject the notion that China plans kinetic action against Taiwan by 2027.

For Europe, reduced near-term military tension in the Taiwan Strait provides breathing room to accelerate defence cooperation and diversify supply chains. Yet some experts urge caution. Bill Bishop of Sinocism warned: "The younger, replacement generation may be real wolf warriors, so assuming this apparent chaos inside the PLA means the risks to Taiwan are lower may be risky."

What Europe Should Do

The EU's response to Chinese instability should be guided by three principles, according to analysts at the German Marshall Fund.

First, maintain economic engagement while systematically reducing critical dependencies. Trade defence measures will likely be deployed "on an almost daily basis" in 2026, according to one European executive who speaks regularly with the Commission.

Second, accelerate partnerships with democratic allies in the Indo-Pacific. The EU-India summit signals the direction of travel, as does growing momentum for a federated Europe capable of acting decisively on the world stage.

Third, prepare for multiple scenarios. Xi Jinping remains focused on making China a global power by 2049, and any obstacles will be systematically removed. The current purge, whatever its immediate causes, is designed to ensure the military serves one man's vision.

For now, European policymakers face the challenge of navigating between a chaotic America and an unpredictable China. The case for deeper European integration has rarely been stronger.